As elections near, South Sudan risks new atrocity crimes, warns rights probe

Key points

• ‘Rushing’ to elections could fuel conflict, says Commission
• Hundreds of ceasefire violations confirmed
• Peace deal still largely unimplemented 
• Inclusive politics ‘abandoned’

With the country on the cusp of its first national elections since independence, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan stressed that “multiple risk factors for atrocity crimes are converging…The window to prevent a return to the scale of atrocities and displacement South Sudan endured between 2013–2018 is closing, but it has not yet completely shut.”

The warning comes amid the resumption of armed conflict in several parts of the country, in Upper Nile, Jonglei and Unity states, with clashes and civilian deaths also recorded in Western and Central Equatoria states.

A total of 407 ceasefire violations were recorded from August 2025 to January 2026.

Crossroads moment

“Fifteen years after independence, South Sudan is at one of its most dangerous points,” the Commission said, noting that “rushing to elections” without essential safeguards risks deepening existing conflicts and increasing the risk of the atrocity crimes genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing.

In 2018, the country’s warring parties committed to a revitalized peace deal (the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Today, almost half of its key provisions have not been implemented, including the unification of the country’s security forces.

Instead, South Sudan’s people must now endure a “worsening political, security, humanitarian and human rights situation” marked by a return of political division and conflict-related abuses, the Commissioners maintained.

The panel is an independent body created by and reporting to the UN Human Rights Council, which convenes Member States in Geneva.

Established in March 2016, the Commission has been renewed annually ever since, highlighting grave international concern over the dire situation for South Sudan’s people.

The commissioners are Yasmin Sooka, Barney Afako and Carlos Castresana Fernández. Each is a senior expert in human rights law and international law. They are not UN staff and do not receive a salary for their work as Commissioners.

Deeply worrying signs

Today’s concerns over renewed atrocities are in line with the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes, which sets out eight warning signs of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing. “The Commission finds most are present and intensifying at once in South Sudan,” it said.

Chief among South Sudan’s problems are “renewed armed conflict, weakened institutions, entrenched impunity, exclusionary governance, corruption, shrinking civic space and inflammatory rhetoric”, the Commissioners said.

At the same time, the mechanisms that could mitigate these risks – including ceasefire monitoring, independent justice institutions and inclusive political dialogue – “have been weakened or suspended”.

In a statement, the Commissioners also alleged that inclusive politics were now “being abandoned” in Juba; civic space and constitutional safeguards have also been weakened, they said, while accountability mechanisms “remain largely absent”.

At the same time, significant sections of the population remain excluded from meaningful political participation, the panel noted. “Without a return to genuine and inclusive dialogue, the political contest surrounding the elections risks deepening existing divisions rather than providing a peaceful means of resolving them,” they said.

Law of the gun

Commission Chair Ms. Sooka insisted that South Sudanese who have “waited 15 years to cast their first ballots” had the right to choose their government through free, peaceful and democratic elections.

“Elections must not be allowed to create another violent battleground,” said Commissioner Mr. Afako. “The guns are returning while the safeguards for peaceful political competition are disappearing. That is a profoundly dangerous trajectory,” he added.

“An election cannot be credible simply because it is held on schedule,” said Commissioner Mr. Fernández. “It is credible when citizens can vote without fear, political opponents can participate freely, courts can resolve disputes independently, and institutions can constrain the exercise of power.”